
| 2005 Predictions |
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Published: 30th Dec 2004, 21:37:09GMT Source: drobe.co.uk By Peter Naulls
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| And how close we came for 2004 |
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It's that time of year again, when we peer into our crystal ball, and look forwards and backwards to see what has been, what should have been, and what we might be finding under the tree for Christmas 2005.
To start with, we'll take a look at what we predicted in 2004 and how close we came. Indeed, looking at the list, we did very well. However, before you accuse us of gloating, all of the predictions we made were educated guesses - based upon knowledge that was readily available, although not always widely known - and the 2005 predictions will be no different. If they surprise you, then all the better, but they've been made for good reasons.
2004 Predictions
- Select on ROM. Well, not much to say here; RISCOS Ltd has had an apparently brisk trade in the ROMs it offered for sale, and is fitted in the machines of three drobe writers.
- Iyonix NetBSD. Of course, we'd known Gavan was working on this since the middle of 2003; unfortunately it's not as complete the the Linux port yet, but hopefully that will be soon.
- No Iyonix Laptop. The reasons we stated remained true throughout 2004, and Castle's focus remaining on supporting their desktop machine; but see what we say further down for 2005.
- Shared Libraries. Well, they didn't appear in a form I was hoping for - Steven Simpson did do more work with his AOF system - but more work remains to be done, some of which was covered in our recent article on AOF and ELF.
- Package Management. Despite numerous instances of cases where much grief could have been avoided by a proper package management system in 2004, a comprehensive system has yet to arrive, although Graham continues to press on. The Unix Porting Project hopes to make uses of this system in 2005, and will hopefully encourage a larger take up.
- ARM Twister. What can we say? MicroDigital have had a very quiet year, and there's no evidence of any of the promised upgrades since the ethernet cards at Wakefield 2003.
- Web Browsers. NetSurf continues to be developed apace; the Unix Porting Project demonstrated a port of a simple but functional browser, Dillo, and continues to make important progress towards bringing Firefox to RISC OS.
- Cino. Oh dear! It's been demonstrated at various RISC OS shows, and information about its development has been quite open, but we've not yet seen a release. Maybe next year, guys?
- PCI Cards. Well, there wasn't a proliferation of PCI cards supported in RISC OS in 2004, but we did see the release of Geminus. We hadn't known anything about the project, but familiarity with the Iyonix video system in RISC OS and Linux suggested that it was certainly possible, which is why it made the predictions list. And of course, PCITV was released too.
- GCC 3.3.3. Not only was GCC 3.3.3 released (although upstream versioning meant it was labelled a pre-release), but also was 3.4.1 and, on Christmas day, 3.4.4. Unixlib too, has had an unprecedented number of updates, improvements and bug fixes.
- GemPrint. This has been very popular, and probably doesn't require any further explanation.
And onto 2005
Well, it looks like drobe.co.uk did pretty well. Let's try and repeat the trick for 2005, starting with that perennial favourite.
- RISC OS Portable. No, we're not going to predict a portable RISC OS machine in 2005. Why? Because we believe there will be not one, but two. We have no idea what forms these will take in terms of OS versions, processor speed, physical design, etc. But what we do know is that things have changed hugely since the debacle of the RiscStation laptop. There's now a plethora of ARM-based devices around, with a huge range peripherals and made from a vast range of components - there's bound to be something suitable for RISC OS (and plenty more terribly unsuitable). Of course, putting RISC OS on any new machine is a vast amount of effort, but at least it is now rather more practical.
- Development tools and Unix compatibility. 2005 will be another busy year for Unixlib and GCC. Work has already begun on porting GCC 4.0, which has substantial changes and promises even better code output. There's also the ELF changes we previously discussed, and some major work on Unixlib to close some of the gaps with Unix compatibility. I won't talk too much about those here, as I'll be discussing those soon in a separate article. I think we will also finally see the ability to produce modules using GCC, leaving you with no reason not to use it should you choose.
- Non-updated RISC OS news sites. No, really? Yes, sadly. The Iconbar, despite more erratic and sometimes odd updates, has managed still to produce quite a volume of articles in 2004, and we don't want to see them disappear. On the other hand, the number of news items on riscos.org, Acorn Cybervillage and MyRISCOS has continued to drop. It's our hope that in 2005, they'll decide it's not in the best interests of RISC OS to display old news.
- Select 4 and Select 32. Originally intended for release this year, but held up by Castle-RISCOS Ltd controversy, 2005 should see a Select 4, some of the details which were discussed during RISCOS Ltd's Wakefield presentation. We also expect to see further development of Select 32 and machines using it, including the availability of the A9Home, which promises to be a nice proposition for new entry level machines into the RISC OS market (compared purchasing souped-up, but old, RiscPCs).
- Iyonix 2? We're not sure we want to put our money on this one for 2005. Although it's clear that one based around the IOP332 is certainly possible, or possibly some of the newer and faster ARM9 devices, we think that Castle's focus will not be on a producing an Iyonix replacement until 2006, but you can be certain that they will be keeping their minds open about the possibilities.
- New Users and more publicity. There's been a trickle of new and returning users in 2004, although perhaps it's not entirely obvious why. With new software and new hardware in 2005, we might reasonably expect this to increase. RISC OS has also done quite well with appearances in wider computing circles, with for example, drobe.co.uk being linked numerous times from OSNews. This may be part of the reason for the new users.
- New Software. Apart from the previously mentioned items, we might reasonably expect to see USB2 support from Castle (with the USB card in the Iyonix already providing hardware support), a 32-bit Impression Publisher that XAT have been working hard at and possibly Java/Flash plugin solutions via various free software developments.
And as always, loads of things that we simply couldn't predict. How close do you think we came? Don't forget, before you rush to add your own predictions, the point of this exercise is to be as precise as possible: anyone can wave their hands and say that vague development will occur for given types of software for RISC OS (we certainly did above).
If you have your own visions for 2005, then we encourage you to share them with us along with reasoning for them, and the precise manner they will come about.
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DaveW (+3.4)
 30/12/04 9:54PM |
I predict in 2005 there will be no Macromedia Director port or Flash 6
... which means goodbye to RISC OS
in primary education. |
mrchocky (+0.9)
 30/12/04 10:14PM |
And this is despite my suggestion above? As I suggested at the end, please provide some basis for your prediction. |
Jaffa (+2.5)
 30/12/04 10:24PM |
Reasons for no suitable Flash/Director port? Money. Market size. Demand.
Lack of demand <= reasons for goodbye to RISC OS in primary education: poor web access (specifically to the content above, eg. at the excellent BBC site); lack of time/will to support two computing platforms within a school; peer pressure to scrap remaining old machines; etc. etc.
I'd also be willing to bet that the onsite support that the likes of RM provide (necessarily given the awfulness of their kit) provide a safety net which is well-valued by the hassled ICT co-ordinator in a small school. AFAIK there are no similar support services offered for RISC OS machines. Even worse, they wouldn't be viable due to the lack of demand - resulting in a horrible vicious circle  |
aardvark (+2.5) 30/12/04 10:37PM |
That depends. Last I heard, Oregan were pretty close to getting a Flash 6 player done, so that's not an impossibility. And I've heard of another thing which may come to fruition which would result in a Flash 6 player... |
AndrewDuffell (+0.5)
 30/12/04 10:38PM |
Yeh, the article pointed out the mentions of RISC OS on "mainstream" sites such as OSNews.com which is good. I've found that if you submit a relevent Drobe/TIB article to OSNews they always post it, so reccomend that people do this as much as possible when the articles on either sites are relevent.
Also... I predict articles on TIB and Drobe will both continue to increase in number, and I do have inside knowledge for one of the sites
Laptop wise...? Why not vote in the TIB poll on this one. Personally I agree with drobe.co.uk that there is going to be some activity this year for native laptops. |
DaveW (+2.6)
 30/12/04 11:01PM |
To Mr. Chocky (Peter):
I've spent a long time ensuring RISC OS is trouble free and as up to date as it can be, given lack of suitable funds and uncertainty over RISC OS useability for interactive sites.
Unfortunately there is still no sign of Macromedia Director port (needed to run much of the new education software and for interactive web content). Every time it has been brought up, back comes the reply that Macromedia require many thousands of pounds - more money than anyone wants to invest in RISCOS's future.
I know that Oregan are close with Flash 5 - but there is no other hopeful news.
Oregano 2 sadly has some faults too (it can't cope with the output from Textease very well), it expires without warning too often and seems to remove sprite memory - causing problems for other software.
If someone were to say that there will be Macromedia Director and Flash 6 ports real soon, it would be very easy to convince my Governors that we could buy new RISCOS machines, or at least buy 11 sets of RISC OS 4 with Select to update our current stock (one third of the computer stock). |
datawave
 31/12/04 1:45AM |
I really hope, that there is coming a
Risc OS portable computer with LCD color
screen in 16 million colours with the new
ARM9 processor on board and a CINO dvd-
player and RISC OS 5 ONLY and NOT that
stupid XP or any other Microsoft software
on board, we do NOT like that at all. |
sascott (+2.5)
 31/12/04 2:45AM |
With regards to Macromedia Director, what you actually want is the Macromedia Shockwave plugin and the Flash plugin. There's two flavours - the combined technology, and the Flash only player. Bear in mind Shockwave is now on version 10, and Flash is version 7, and have advanced hugely since the beta version that appeared on the Acorn Clan CD of 1997/98, which was running version 4 (even by then, it was outdated).
RISC OS is probably not alone in the world as being without this technology, but with ubiquity comes a hopefully lower price. Macromedia could always do reduced license fees for lower versions, just to encourage some development without the developers taking a price hit in the process. It its enough to encourage more sales in our platform, then you get added impetus to license the latest version?
You never know what may happen in 2005. I think for now, however, attention is now drawn to more recent events... in any case, all the best for the new year everyone  |
imj (-0.2)
 31/12/04 3:48AM |
My predictions for 2005:
druck & co will continue sniping on Usenet
Castle will continue their stupid spat with everyone else while RISC OS 5 goes nowhere
Oregano 3 won't land on RISC OS
Cino still won't be released (I still say it's all unproven pointless hot air anyway)
STD will produce yet another astonishing multifaceted rabbit from their hat
VirtualRiscPC will be released for Linux
We'll see yet another bloomin' web browser rear it's head
Microdigital will release a CPU upgrade for Omega but it will require Select32.
Unipod software becomes stable.
Kortink will release ViewFinder code as opensource
Qercus will get a decent name and some content
Ok, I'm just being silly with those last few (draw the line wherever you desire) I expect some reaction to that lot Here's to a fine 2005 for all, anyhow. |
Sawadee
 31/12/04 5:59AM |
I agree very much with "DaveW" comments.
In education, people love their MS like a car from the salesyard "Honest Harry's 2nd hand faulty Imports" as opposed to a Horseless Carriage from RISC OS with only a few bits and pieces missing.
If a few of the bells and whistles are missing, then very few will bother with RO no matter how good the "Plain Jane" RO machine is.
This is not my opinion, but a similar daily experience I share with "DaveW" in a school environment.
I still think now as I did six months ago, that 2005 WILL be a very good year for RISC OS despite our slow progress and despair. |
jess (+3.1)
 31/12/04 9:51AM |
Searches for a shockwave player for linux bring up petitions for macromedia to create a version, so it looks like we are in good company .
Would a thin client solution provide a suitable stopgapalternative? (I did see some adverts for products that allowed windows shockwave to be used on linux, so a linux based system might be possible as opposed to a windows terminal server) |
imj (-0.5)
 31/12/04 12:35PM |
Chocks, please don't continue your usual line of sniping at everyone who offers an opinion, it does you no favours. |
nunfetishist (-0.5) 31/12/04 1:31PM |
In reply to mrchocky:
Please don't continue your usual "I am the world" replies, unless you can prove that they interest nobody. |
imj (+0.4)
 31/12/04 1:32PM |
Oh I think the Castle debacle is of huge interest to a great many people. It's killed quite a lot of developments this year and wasted one hell of a lot of money, time and good will from a great many parties. Any respect I had for Castle's developments of the Iyonix board are utterly blown away by this mess and their continued bumbling in clearing matters up. I know you really love Castle, but you have no justification to say that Castle's rude actions are of "no interest" to anyone when they are the single most likely thing to kill off everything! |
mavhc 31/12/04 1:37PM |
My predictions for 2005:
imj & co will continue sniping on drobe
Castle will continue RISC OS 5
Oregano 3 won't land on RISC OS, and noone will really care
Cineroma will be released (imj will still say it's all unproven pointless hot air anyway)
STD will just give all their products to jymbob
VirtualRiscPC will be released for Linux, and noone will really care
We'll see yet another web browser blooming
Microdigital will release anything
No software becomes stable.
Kortink will release PackDir code as opensource
Qercus will get a decent name (Acorn User) and some content (licenced from drobe.co.uk) |
jess
 31/12/04 1:38PM |
I should have mentioned the post was in answer to DaveW's post.
I was referring to the specific school scenario. By thin client solution, I meant have a terminal server on the network with shockwave installed. (This would be an x86 box). The acorns could then use RDP to run a webbrowser in a session on it, allowing them not to be replaced. It might be possible for a linux based server to do a similar job, but as I understand it you would need crossover to allow it to run the windows shockwave. |
Jaco (-1.0) 31/12/04 3:22PM |
"I HAVE explained exactly what Castle have done wrong"
Er... It didn't explain much to me. Can you explain some more? |
adamr 31/12/04 3:23PM |
My, isn't this a heated debate!
In reply to mavhc:
"VirtualRiscPC will be released for Linux, and noone will really care"
I'll care - that's one more than "noone"!
"Kortink will release PackDir code as opensource"
Heh heh, then druck will alter it and release a commercial version, just to annoy him
Adam |
fwibbler
 31/12/04 3:33PM |
I still think a lot of people have not fully appreciated the level of damage done to the market by events earlier this year and I don't think RISC OS on desktop machines will ever recover.
I certainly don't see any great future for RISC OS on desktop machines. Embedded products yes. Not desktop.
A hell of a lot of people walked quietly away from the RISC OS platform because of the dispute and are still leaving because of it.
As far as predictions go, well I wouldn't like to say but I hope that VRPC becomes available for Linux.
Cheers! |
Jaco (-1.0) 31/12/04 4:16PM |
So much for the complete article. |
chrisj (+0.5) 31/12/04 7:59PM |
In reply to imj:
ROL say that they stayed within the licence; Castle say ROL repeatedly and broke the licence. Without actually seeing the licence, it's impossible to know who's right. Have you seen the licence? (If so, can you please tell the rest of us what it says.) |
mavhc 1/1/05 12:41AM |
Damn Castle, fancy selling us the fastest RISC OS machine ever and selling us 32bit RISC OS, I hate them!
What ROL have done wrong: Not made RISC OS 32bit. And then when someone else did, apparently attempt to do it again.
Of course the last time Ian wrote an article and we commented on it in relation to Castle he deleted the article rather than explain anything. |
leeshep
 1/1/05 1:07AM |
Happy New Year everyone - all the best for 2005 don't get too drunk, like I have done ha ha an exciting future for RISC OS it would seem. Looking forward Lee |
mikeg 1/1/05 1:29AM |
In reply to jess:
"a terminal server on the network with shockwave installed" won't give you Shockwave on RISC OS, whatever else it does. It'll give you a window onto a very expensive lump. DaveW is talking about a primary school. It would be much more cost effective for him to buy some decent PCs and licences for VARPC. |
kdm 1/1/05 1:45AM |
IRT mavhc: There are places (allegedly) you can go buy fancy fast cars from. The number plates aren't original, there's no log book, and the VIN's have been removed. But they're fancy cars - so what the heck.
"What ROL have done wrong: Not made RISC OS 32bit", As publicised, all new components and revised components were made 26/32. "And then when someone else did..." ...as in PACE you mean? "...apparently attempt to do it again" ...you mean continue work in progress on a more advanced and in any case entirely different source tree? I'm glad they have!
You clearly have no idea what is or has been going on. AIUI, IMJ does. The problem being that most concerned are either under NDA or just don't want to speak out. Reality is in the hands of lawyers, and "spin" is in the public domain.
Happy new year.
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